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A Robust and Non-parametric Model for Prediction of Dengue Incidence

Chakraborty, A and Chandru, V (2020) A Robust and Non-parametric Model for Prediction of Dengue Incidence. In: Journal of the Indian Institute of Science, 100 (4). pp. 893-899.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41745-020-00202-4


Disease surveillance is essential not only for the prior detection of outbreaks, but also for monitoring trends of the disease in the long run. In this paper, we aim to build a tactical model for the surveillance of dengue, in particular. Most existing models for dengue prediction exploit its known relationships between climate and socio-demographic factors with the incidence counts; however, they are not flexible enough to capture the steep and sudden rise and fall of the incidence counts. This has been the motivation for the methodology used in our paper. We build a non-parametric, flexible, Gaussian process (GP) regression model that relies on past dengue incidence counts and climate covariates, and show that the GP model performs accurately, in comparison with the other existing methodologies, thus proving to be a good tactical and robust model for health authorities to plan their course of action. © 2020, Indian Institute of Science.

Item Type: Journal Article
Publication: Journal of the Indian Institute of Science
Publisher: Springer
Additional Information: The copyright for this article belongs to the Author(s).
Keywords: Regression analysis, Course of action; Disease surveillance; Gaussian process; Non-parametric model; Regression model; Robust modeling; Socio-demographic factors; Tactical models, Climate models
Department/Centre: Division of Interdisciplinary Sciences > Centre for Biosystems Science and Engineering
Date Deposited: 12 Jan 2023 08:51
Last Modified: 12 Jan 2023 08:51
URI: https://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/79059

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