Sub-segment-based approach for assessing growth and energy transition trajectories of Indian two-wheelers

Saurabh, K and Majumdar, R (2023) Sub-segment-based approach for assessing growth and energy transition trajectories of Indian two-wheelers. In: Journal of Cleaner Production, 430 .

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Abstract

The transition trajectory of India's two-wheeler (2W) vehicle segment is studied using a sequential modelling framework for projecting sub-segment-wise 2W fleet, energy demand, and associated CO2 emissions. Road density per capita was identified as a more significant explanatory variable than GDP per capita in estimating 2W fleet size in India. The elasticity method was used to evaluate the 2W vehicle saturation level based on five different indirect parameters. It was found that population density had the highest impact (48), followed by urbanization (31) and adult population share (16). The impact of the total cost of ownership was negligible. The mean 2W vehicle saturation level was calculated to be 314 while the ownership was found to be 207, 265, and 297 vehicles per 1000 people by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Scooters were found to be leading the e-transition of 2Ws but a successful e-transition of India's 2Ws would not be achieved without transitioning the motorcycles. Two motorcycle clusters were identified that offer economies of scale towards e-transitioning. Closer scrutiny of six plausible e-transition scenarios showed that a 50 penetration of E�2Ws is unattainable before 2045. The biggest obstacle in achieving high E�2W penetration in India would be the limited capacity to supply indigenously produced vehicles. A high import dependence on battery technology and critical raw materials would limit the energy transition and diversification of the Indian road transport sector. India should follow the mass adoption-driven diffusion pathway in the short-to-medium term and the affordability-constraint diffusion pathway in the long term to achieve the best results in terms of reduction in energy demand and associated emissions for the 2W segment. The gains from the e-transition of the road transport sector would not be substantial without a simultaneous transition in the country's electricity generation mix away from coal-based thermal power. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

Item Type:	Journal Article
Publication:	Journal of Cleaner Production
Publisher:	Elsevier Ltd
Additional Information:	The copyright for this article belongs to Elsevier Ltd.
Keywords:	Economics; Energy management; Fleet operations; Motorcycles; Population statistics; Roads and streets, Cleaner energies; Cleaner energy mix; Electric vehicle transition; Emission saving; Energy mix; Gompertz function; Modified gompertz function; Two wheelers; Two-wheeler segment; Vehicle fleet elasticity; Vehicle fleets, Elasticity
Department/Centre:	Division of Mechanical Sciences > Divecha Centre for Climate Change
Date Deposited:	28 Feb 2024 11:38
Last Modified:	28 Feb 2024 11:38
URI:	https://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/83627

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