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Modelling the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymptomatic Patients, Lockdown and Herd Immunity

Ansumali, S and Kaushal, S and Kumar, A and Prakash, MK and Vidyasagar, M (2020) Modelling the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymptomatic Patients, Lockdown and Herd Immunity. In: IFAC-PapersOnLine, 3-5 December 2020, pp. 823-828.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.223


The SARS-Cov-2 is a type of coronavirus that has caused the COVID-19 pandemic. In traditional epidemiological models such as SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed), the exposed group E does not infect the susceptible group S. A distinguishing feature of COVID-19 is that, unlike with previous viruses, there is a distinct "asymptomatic"group A, who do not show any symptoms, but can nevertheless infect others, at the same rate as infected patients. This situation is captured in a model known as SAIR (Susceptible, Asymptomatic, Infected, Removed), introduced in Robinson and Stilianakis (2013). The dynamical behavior of the SAIR model is quite different from that of the SEIR model. In this paper, we use Lyapunov theory to establish the global asymptotic stabiilty of the SAIR model. Next, we present methods for estimating the parameters in the SAIR model. We apply these estimation methods to data from several countries including India, and show that the predicted trajectories of the disease closely match actual data.

Item Type: Conference Paper
Publication: IFAC-PapersOnLine
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Additional Information: The copyright for this article belongs to the Author(s).
Keywords: Viruses, Asymptomatic patients; Coronaviruses; Dynamical behaviors; Epidemiological models; Estimation methods; Herd immunities; Infected patients; Lyapunov theories, Diseases
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Mechanical Engineering
Date Deposited: 23 Jan 2023 06:27
Last Modified: 23 Jan 2023 06:27
URI: https://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/79250

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