Sreeparvathy, V and Srinivas, VV (2022) Meteorological flash droughts risk projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios. In: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5 (1).
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Abstract
Meteorological flash droughts (MFDs) are sub-seasonal-to-seasonal drought phenomena characterized by rapid onset/intensification. This study assesses the changes in trends and hotspot regions of MFDs for the present and five future CMIP6 SSP forcing scenarios (SSP-FS) at global-, continental- and regional-scales. Analysis with 12 GCMs indicates that globally, frequency, duration and severity of MFDs are projected to increase ~20–50%, 20–58%, and 26–62%, respectively, with the highest occurrence probability during the summer season. The MFD hotspot regions appeared prominent in arid and semi-arid zones. MFD exposure risk is projected to exceed ~1.5 folds in most continents, with the highest risk in the Indian sub-continent. Furthermore, in Europe and South America, which are currently less impacted by MFDs, a considerable increase in hotspot regions (~122–127%) is projected under the warmest SSP-FS. The LULC-classes and elevation range most vulnerable to MFDs, and regional potential hydrometeorological drivers that trigger the development of MFDs are identified.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Publication: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Publisher: | Nature Research |
| Additional Information: | The copyright for this article belongs to the Author(s). |
| Department/Centre: | Division of Mechanical Sciences > Divecha Centre for Climate Change Division of Interdisciplinary Sciences > Interdisciplinary Centre for Water Research Division of Mechanical Sciences > Civil Engineering |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Nov 2022 09:33 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Nov 2022 09:33 |
| URI: | https://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/77757 |
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