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Meteorological flash droughts risk projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios

Sreeparvathy, V and Srinivas, VV (2022) Meteorological flash droughts risk projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios. In: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5 (1).

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00302-1


Meteorological flash droughts (MFDs) are sub-seasonal-to-seasonal drought phenomena characterized by rapid onset/intensification. This study assesses the changes in trends and hotspot regions of MFDs for the present and five future CMIP6 SSP forcing scenarios (SSP-FS) at global-, continental- and regional-scales. Analysis with 12 GCMs indicates that globally, frequency, duration and severity of MFDs are projected to increase ~20–50%, 20–58%, and 26–62%, respectively, with the highest occurrence probability during the summer season. The MFD hotspot regions appeared prominent in arid and semi-arid zones. MFD exposure risk is projected to exceed ~1.5 folds in most continents, with the highest risk in the Indian sub-continent. Furthermore, in Europe and South America, which are currently less impacted by MFDs, a considerable increase in hotspot regions (~122–127%) is projected under the warmest SSP-FS. The LULC-classes and elevation range most vulnerable to MFDs, and regional potential hydrometeorological drivers that trigger the development of MFDs are identified.

Item Type: Journal Article
Publication: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Publisher: Nature Research
Additional Information: The copyright for this article belongs to the Author(s).
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Divecha Centre for Climate Change
Division of Interdisciplinary Sciences > Interdisciplinary Centre for Water Research
Division of Mechanical Sciences > Civil Engineering
Date Deposited: 07 Nov 2022 09:33
Last Modified: 07 Nov 2022 09:33
URI: https://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/77757

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