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Crowd risk prediction in a spiritually motivated crowd

Harihara Subramanian, G and Verma, A (2022) Crowd risk prediction in a spiritually motivated crowd. In: Safety Science, 155 .

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105877


Since time immemorial, India has hosted numerous religious gatherings and periodic events. Many of these events have been marred by crowd crushes and accidents. Human behavior being a complex phenomenon, can lead to complex behaviors. This makes the safety of people in crowded places a major concern for the government and management authorities. Capturing and studying these behaviors through empirical studies is essential to predicting crowd risk at a given location. To predict the level of risk, a comprehensive crowd risk prediction model in the form of Crowd Risk Index (CRI) was developed in this study. The CRI was developed from three indices (1) Crowd Dynamic Index (includes speed, flow, density, social group, and serpentine group behavior) (2) Crowd Anxiety Index (includes patience and aggression scores) (3) Temperature Humidity Index (includes temperature and humidity). With an overarching understanding of the factors leading to critical crowd conditions, the CRI developed in this work can help the crowd managers reasonably predict the level of risk and implement appropriate crowd management measures.

Item Type: Journal Article
Publication: Safety Science
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Additional Information: The copyright for this article belongs to the Elsevier B.V.
Keywords: Forecasting; Lead compounds; Risk assessment; Safety engineering; Serpentine, Crowd dynamics; Crowd risk prediction; Crowd safety; Empirical studies; Human behaviors; Kumbh mela; Mass religious gathering; Risk indices; Risk prediction models; Risk predictions, Behavioral research, aggression; Article; controlled study; crowd anxiety index; crowd management; crowd risk index; crowd risk prediction; crowd safety; environmental parameters; environmental temperature; group dynamics; human; humidity; mass behavior; mass gathering; patience; population density; religion; risk; risk assessment; safety; temperature humidity index
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Civil Engineering
Date Deposited: 27 Aug 2022 09:21
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2022 09:21
URI: https://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/76262

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