Prediction of Active and Break Spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Using Linear Discriminant Analysis

Saha, M and Mitra, P and Nanjundiah, RS (2018) Prediction of Active and Break Spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Using Linear Discriminant Analysis. In: 9th International Conference on Advances in Pattern Recognition, ICAPR 2017, 27-30 December 2017, Bangalore, pp. 46-51.

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Abstract

India being an agricultural land, the monsoon governs the pulse of life for its mankind along with the flora-fauna existing in the subcontinent. Active and break spells are two important phases of monsoon which determine the overall quality and quantity of monsoon for a year. Prediction of active and break spells of monsoon is of high significance owing to planning of proper strategy for best utilization of monsoon phases, which assists in economic development of the country. In this article we propose a classification based scheme for the prediction of spells of the Indian summer monsoon. We have used linear discriminant analysis based classifier to classify the monsoon days into into dry, normal, or wet days. Classifying monsoon at daily scale makes it more challenging as uncertainty and variability are more higher as compared to monthly or yearly monsoon prediction. Climatic variables are selected of meteorology importance as input features to the classifier for obtaining higher accuracy of classification. Proposed method initiates with greedy feature selection, followed by linear discriminant analysis based classification of daily monsoon. Assembling the classified monsoon days lead to the determination of active or break spells during the period. Classification results are observed to be close to an acceptable performance, owing to the complexity of the phenomenon. The spells are predicted with comparable accuracy. The accuracy of prediction of the break spells are observed to be superior to that of the active spells.

Item Type:	Conference Paper
Publication:	2017 9th International Conference on Advances in Pattern Recognition, ICAPR 2017
Publisher:	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Additional Information:	The copyright for this article belongs to the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Keywords:	Classification (of information); Discriminant analysis; Feature extraction; Forecasting, Acceptable performance; Accuracy of classifications; Active spell; Break spell; Classification results; Indian summer monsoon; Linear discriminant analysis; Uncertainty and variability, Atmospheric thermodynamics
Department/Centre:	Division of Mechanical Sciences > Divecha Centre for Climate Change Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2022 10:24
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2022 10:24
URI:	https://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/75032

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