Evaluation and Usefulness of Lightning Forecasts Made with Lightning Parameterization Scheme Coupled with WRF Model

Gayatri Vani, K and Mohan, GM and Hazra, A and Pawar, SD and Pokhrel, S and Chaudhari, HS and Konwar, M and Saha, SK and Mallick, C and Das, SK and Deshpande, S and Ghude, SD and Domkawale, M and Rao, SA and Nanjundiah, RS and Rajeevan, M (2022) Evaluation and Usefulness of Lightning Forecasts Made with Lightning Parameterization Scheme Coupled with WRF Model. In: Weather and Forecasting, 37 (5). pp. 709-726.

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Abstract

The evaluation and usefulness of lightning prediction for Indian subcontinent are demonstrated. Implementation of the lightning parameterizations based on storm parameters, in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), with different microphysics schemes are carried out. With the availability of observed lightning measurements over Maharashtra from the lightning detection network (LDN), lightning cases have been identified during premonsoon season of 2016-2018. Lightning parameterization based on cloud top height defined by reflectivity threshold factor of 20 dBZ is chosen. Initial analysis is carried out for sixteen lightning events with four microphysical schemes for the usefulness in lightning prediction. Objective analysis is carried out and quantitative model performance (skill scores) is assessed based on observed data. The skills are evaluated for 10 and 50 km square box from the 1 km domain. There is good POD of 0.86, 0.82, 0.85, 0.84 and false alarm ratio (FAR) of 0.28, 0.25, 0.29, 0.26 from WSM6, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6 respectively. There is an overestimation in lightning flash with a spatial and temporal shift. The fractional skill score is evaluated as a function of spatial scale with neighbourhoods from 25 to 250 km. These high skill scores and high degree of correlation between observations and model simulation gives confidence to use the system for real-time operational forecast over India. The skill for 2019 and 2020 pre-monsoon are calculated to address the predictability of operational lightning prediction over India. © 2022, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Publication:	Weather and Forecasting
Publisher:	American Meteorological Society
Additional Information:	The copyright for this article belongs to the American Meteorological Society
Keywords:	Lightning; Parameter estimation; Weather forecasting, Indian subcontinents; Lightning flashes; Lightning forecasts; Lightning parameterization; Microphysics; Parameterization schemes; Pre-monsoon; Skill Score; Weather research and forecasting; Weather research and forecasting models, Parameterization
Department/Centre:	Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Date Deposited:	16 May 2022 06:50
Last Modified:	27 May 2022 06:05
URI:	https://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/71688

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