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A mechanistic model for airborne and direct human-to-human transmission of COVID-19: effect of mitigation strategies and immigration of infectious persons

Pal, S and Ghosh, I (2022) A mechanistic model for airborne and direct human-to-human transmission of COVID-19: effect of mitigation strategies and immigration of infectious persons. In: European Physical Journal: Special Topics .

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00433-9


The COVID-19 pandemic is the most significant global crisis since World War II that affected almost all the countries of our planet. To control the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, it is necessary to understand how the virus is transmitted to a susceptible individual and eventually spread in the community. The primary transmission pathway of COVID-19 is human-to-human transmission through infectious droplets. However, a recent study by Greenhalgh et al. (Lancet 397:1603�1605, 2021) demonstrates 10 scientific reasons behind the airborne transmission of SARS-COV-2. In the present study, we introduce a novel mathematical model of COVID-19 that considers the transmission of free viruses in the air beside the transmission of direct contact with an infected person. The basic reproduction number of the epidemic model is calculated using the next-generation operator method and observed that it depends on both the transmission rate of direct contact and free virus contact. The local and global stability of disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is well established. Analytically it is found that there is a forward bifurcation between the DFE and an endemic equilibrium using central manifold theory. Next, we used the nonlinear least-squares technique to identify the best-fitted parameter values in the model from the observed COVID-19 mortality data of two major districts of India. Using estimated parameters for Bangalore urban and Chennai, different control scenarios for mitigation of the disease are investigated. Results indicate that the vaccination of susceptible individuals and treatment of hospitalized patients are very crucial to curtailing the disease in the two locations. It is also found that when a vaccine crisis is there, the public health authorities should prefer to vaccinate the susceptible people compared to the recovered persons who are now healthy. Along with face mask use, treatment of hospitalized patients, and vaccination of susceptibles, immigration should be allowed in a supervised manner so that economy of the overall society remains healthy. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to EDP Sciences, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

Item Type: Journal Article
Publication: European Physical Journal: Special Topics
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Additional Information: The copyright for this article belongs to Authors
Department/Centre: Division of Interdisciplinary Sciences > Computational and Data Sciences
Date Deposited: 10 Feb 2022 11:53
Last Modified: 10 Feb 2022 11:53
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/71161

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