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Evaluation of three approaches to probable maximum precipitation estimation: a study on two Indian river basins

Chavan, SR and Srinivas, VV (2021) Evaluation of three approaches to probable maximum precipitation estimation: a study on two Indian river basins. In: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 144 (1-2). pp. 731-749.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03557-5


Estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and corresponding probable maximum flood (PMF) are necessary for planning, design, and risk assessment of flood control structures whose failure could have catastrophic consequences. For PMP estimation, multifractal approach (MA) is deemed to be better than conventional approaches, which are based either on statistical concepts or physical aspects. The MA yields physically meaningful PMP estimates by attempting to capture scale-invariant multiplicative cascade mechanism inherent in rainfall. This paper attempts to gain insights into the performance of MA by comparing PMP estimates obtained using the approach with those resulting from the use of two widely used empirical approaches (storm maximization approach (SMA) and Hershfield method (HM)) on two flood-prone river basins (Mahanadi and Godavari) in India. The results indicate that rainfall data of the two river basins exhibit multifractal properties, and the use of MA has an advantage over HM and SMA in estimating PMP corresponding to longer durations (>3 days). PMP estimates obtained using HM are generally lower (higher) than those obtained using SMA for 1-day (higher) duration. PMP maps are prepared for the two Indian river basins corresponding to 1-day to 5-day durations. Further, PMP estimates obtained based on the PMP maps are provided for 18 catchments in the Mahanadi basin and 53 catchments in the Godavari river basin. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, AT part of Springer Nature.

Item Type: Journal Article
Publication: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Publisher: Springer
Additional Information: The copyright to this article belongs to Springer.
Keywords: Hershfield method; India; Multifractal approach; Probable maximum precipitation; Storm maximization approach
Department/Centre: Division of Interdisciplinary Sciences > Interdisciplinary Centre for Water Research
Division of Mechanical Sciences > Civil Engineering
Date Deposited: 22 Dec 2021 10:46
Last Modified: 22 Dec 2021 10:46
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/68211

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