A New Formula for Predicting Solar Cycles

Hazra, Gopal and Choudhuri, Arnab Rai (2019) A New Formula for Predicting Solar Cycles. In: ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, 880 (2).

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Abstract

A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from the flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes-fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton (BL) mechanism and variations in the meridional circulation (MC), which are believed to be responsible for irregularities of the solar cycle-are constrained using observational data. We take the polar field near minima of the cycle as a measure of the randomness in the BL process, and the decay rate near the minima as a consequence of the change in MC. We couple these two observationally derived quantities into a single formula to predict the amplitude of the future solar cycle. Our new formula suggests that cycle 25 would be a moderate cycle. Whether this formula for predicting the future solar cycle can be justified theoretically is also discussed using simulations from the flux transport dynamo model.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Publication:	ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
Publisher:	IOP PUBLISHING LTD
Additional Information:	copyright for this article belongs to IOP PUBLISHING LTD
Keywords:	Sun: activity; Sun: interior; Sun: magnetic fields; sunspots
Department/Centre:	Division of Physical & Mathematical Sciences > Physics
Date Deposited:	19 Sep 2019 10:25
Last Modified:	19 Sep 2019 10:25
URI:	http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/63488

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