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Fast-slow climate dynamics and peak global warming

Seshadri, K Ashwin (2017) Fast-slow climate dynamics and peak global warming. In: CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 48 (7-8). pp. 2235-2253.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3202-8


The dynamics of a linear two-box energy balance climate model is analyzed as a fast-slow system, where the atmosphere, land, and near-surface ocean taken together respond within few years to external forcing whereas the deep-ocean responds much more slowly. Solutions to this system are approximated by estimating the system's time-constants using a first-order expansion of the system's eigenvalue problem in a perturbation parameter, which is the ratio of heat capacities of upper and lower boxes. The solution naturally admits an interpretation in terms of a fast response that depends approximately on radiative forcing and a slow response depending on integrals of radiative forcing with respect to time. The slow response is inversely proportional to the ``damping-timescale'', the timescale with which deep-ocean warming influences global warming. Applications of approximate solutions are discussed: conditions for a warming peak, effects of an individual pulse emission of carbon dioxide (CO), and metrics for estimating and comparing contributions of different climate forcers to maximum global warming.

Item Type: Journal Article
Publisher: SPRINGER, 233 SPRING ST, NEW YORK, NY 10013 USA
Additional Information: Copy right for this article belongs to the SPRINGER, 233 SPRING ST, NEW YORK, NY 10013 USA
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Divecha Centre for Climate Change
Date Deposited: 20 May 2017 05:31
Last Modified: 20 May 2017 05:31
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/56903

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