Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

Ojha, Richa and Kumar, Nagesh D and Sharma, A and Mehrotra, R (2013) Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach. In: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 18 (7). pp. 760-772.

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Abstract

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Publication:	Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Publisher:	American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Additional Information:	Copyright of this article belongs to American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).
Keywords:	Droughts; India; Climates; Hydrologic Models; Nested Bias Correction; General Circulation Model; Drought; Wet; Standardized Precipitation Index; Climate; Precipitation; India
Department/Centre:	Division of Mechanical Sciences > Civil Engineering
Date Deposited:	23 Sep 2013 08:47
Last Modified:	23 Sep 2013 08:47
URI:	http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/47410

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