Dhanya, CT and Kumar, Nagesh D (2013) Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow. In: Australian Journal of Water Resources, 17 (1).
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Abstract
The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system's Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.
Item Type: | Journal Article |
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Publication: | Australian Journal of Water Resources |
Publisher: | Institution of Engineers, Australia |
Additional Information: | Copyright for this article belongs to the Institution of Engineers, Australia |
Department/Centre: | Division of Mechanical Sciences > Civil Engineering |
Date Deposited: | 05 Sep 2013 06:02 |
Last Modified: | 05 Sep 2013 06:02 |
URI: | http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/47336 |
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