Kumar, Nagesh D and Dhanya, CT (2011) Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow. In: 34 th IAHR World Congress - Balance and Uncertainty, 26 June - 1 July 2011, Brisbane, Australia.
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Abstract
The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system’s Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper |
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| Publisher: | Engineers Australia |
| Additional Information: | Copyright of this article belongs to Engineers Australia. |
| Keywords: | Correlation Dimension; Lyapunov Exponent; Nearest Neighbour; Nonlinear Prediction |
| Department/Centre: | Division of Mechanical Sciences > Civil Engineering |
| Date Deposited: | 21 May 2013 11:33 |
| Last Modified: | 21 May 2013 11:33 |
| URI: | http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/46367 |
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