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Incubation-Time Distribution in Back-Calculation Applied to HIV/AIDS Data in India

Rao, Arni SR Srinivasa and Kakehashi, Masayuki (2005) Incubation-Time Distribution in Back-Calculation Applied to HIV/AIDS Data in India. In: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2 (2). pp. 263-277.

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In this article, HIV incidence density is estimated from prevalence data and then used together with reported cases of AIDS to estimate incubation-time distribution. We used the deconvolution technique and the maximum-likelihood method to estimate parameters. The effect of truncation in hazard was also examined. The mean and standard deviation obtained with the Weibull assumption were 12.9 and 3.0 years, respectively. The estimation seemed useful to investigate the distribution of time between report of HIV infection and that of AIDS development. If we assume truncation, the optimum truncating point was sensitive to the HIV growth assumed. This procedure was applied to US data for validating the results obtained from the Indian data. The results show that method works well.

Item Type: Journal Article
Publication: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Publisher: American Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Additional Information: Full-text of this article is not available in this repository.
Keywords: Maximum likelihood method;back-calculation;incubation time distribution
Department/Centre: Division of Biological Sciences > Centre for Ecological Sciences
Date Deposited: 28 Sep 2005
Last Modified: 15 Apr 2010 11:35
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/3679

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