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Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Ravindranath, NH and Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar and Joshi, NV and Sukumar, R and Sathaye, Jayant (2011) Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India. In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 16 (2, Sp.). pp. 211-227.

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Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

Item Type: Journal Article
Publication: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Publisher: Springer
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Springer.
Keywords: BIOME4; Climate change; Forests; GCOMAP; IBIS; India; Mitigation potential; Net primary productivity
Department/Centre: Division of Biological Sciences > Centre for Ecological Sciences
Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Sustainable Technologies (formerly ASTRA)
Date Deposited: 04 Mar 2011 06:34
Last Modified: 28 Feb 2019 09:00
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/35803

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