Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble

Krishnamurti, TN and Kishtawal, CM and LaRow, Timothy E and Bachiochi, David R and Zhang, Zhan and Williford, Eric C and Gadgil, Sulochana and Surendran, Sajani (1999) Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble. In: Science, 285 (5433). pp. 1548-1550.

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Abstract

A method for improving weather and climate forecast skill has been developed. It is called a superensemble, and it arose from a study of the statistical properties of a low-order spectral model. Multiple regression was used to determine coefficients from multimodel forecasts and observations. The coefficients were then used in the superensemble technique. The superensemble was shown to outperform all model forecasts for multiseasonal, medium-range weather and hurricane forecasts. In addition, the superensemble was shown to have higher skill than forecasts based solely on ensemble averaging.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Publication:	Science
Publisher:	American Association for the Advancement of Science
Keywords:	weather;climate;forecasts;multimodel;superensemble
Department/Centre:	Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Date Deposited:	08 Jun 2004
Last Modified:	08 Jan 2013 05:17
URI:	http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/243

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