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A delphi study on health in future India

Rohatgi, K and Rohatgi, PK (1980) A delphi study on health in future India. In: Journal fo Scientific and Industrial Research, 39 (7). pp. 359-363.

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Official URL: http://nopr.niscair.res.in/handle/123456789/46


PIP: A delphi study was conducted to identify or envision health scenarios in India by the year 2000. Questionnaires consisting of 48 questions on 5 areas (diagnosis and therapy; family planning; pharmaceuticals and drugs; biochemical and biomedical research; health services) were mailed to 250 experts in India. 36 responded. Results were compiled and mailed back to the respondents for changes and comments. 17 people responded. Results of the delphi study shows that policy decisions with respect to compulsory family planning as well as health education at secondary school level will precede further breakthroughs in birth control technology. Non operation reversible sterilization procedures, immunological birth control, Ayurvedic medicines for contraception and abortion, and selection of baby's sex are all possible by 2000 thereafter. Complete eradication of infectious diseases, malnutrition and associated diseases is considered unlikely before 2000, as are advances in biomedical research. Changes in health services (e.g., significant increases in hospital beds and doctors, cheap bulk drugs), particularly in rural areas, are imminent, leading to prolonging of life expectancy to 70 years. Genetic engineering may provide significant breakthroughs in the prevention of malignancies and cardiac disorders. The India delphi study is patterned after a similar delphi study conducted in the U.S. by Smith, Kline and French (SKF) Laboratories in 1968. The SKF study was able to predict some breakthroughs with basic research which have been realized.

Item Type: Journal Article
Publication: Journal fo Scientific and Industrial Research
Publisher: National Institute of Science Communication and Information Resources
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to National Institute of Science Communication and Information Resources.
Keywords: India, Health, Health Services, Time Factors, Population, Policy, Family Planning, Changes, Qualitative Evaluation Birth Rate, Population Control, Needs, Asia, Southern Asia, Developing Countries, Delivery of Health Care, Population Dynamics, Demographic Factors, Population Social Policy, Policy, Social Change, Evaluation, Fertility Measurements, Fertility, Economic Factors.
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Materials Engineering (formerly Metallurgy)
Date Deposited: 09 Jul 2009 09:32
Last Modified: 09 Jul 2009 09:32
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/21313

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