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Estimate of predictability of monthly means in tropics from observations

Goswami, BN and Mohan, Ajaya RS (2001) Estimate of predictability of monthly means in tropics from observations. In: Current Science, 80 (1). pp. 56-63.


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A method of separating the contributions from slowly varying boundary forcing and internal dynamics (e.g.intraseasonal oscillations) that determine the predictability of the monthly mean tropical climate is presented. Based on 33 years of daily low level wind observations and 24 years of satellite observations of outgoing long wave radiation,we show that the Indian monsoon climate is only marginally predictable,as the contribution of the boundary forcing in this region is relatively low and that of the internal dynamics is relatively large. It is also shown that excluding the Indian monsoon region,the redictable region is larger and predictability is higher in the tropics during northern summer. Even though the boundary forced variance is large during northernwinter,the predictable region is smaller as the internal variance is larger and covers a larger region during that period (due to stronger intraseasonal activity).

Item Type: Journal Article
Publication: Current Science
Publisher: Indian Academy of Sciences
Additional Information: Copyright for this article belongs to Indian Academy of Sciences.
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Date Deposited: 09 Sep 2004
Last Modified: 19 Sep 2010 04:16
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/1951

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