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Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment

Goswami, BN and Venugopal, V and Sengupta, D and Madhusoodanan, MS and Xavier, Prince K (2006) Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment. In: Science, 314 (5804). pp. 1442-1445.

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Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature,the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

Item Type: Editorials/Short Communications
Publication: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Date Deposited: 25 Aug 2008
Last Modified: 19 Sep 2010 04:33
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/9125

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