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Large losses in glacier area and water availability by the end of twenty-first century under high emission scenario, Satluj basin, Himalaya

Prasad, Veena and Kulkarni, Anil and Pradeep, S and Pratibha, S and Tawde, Sayli A and Shirsat, Tejal and Arya, AR and Orr, Andrew and Bannister, Daniel (2019) Large losses in glacier area and water availability by the end of twenty-first century under high emission scenario, Satluj basin, Himalaya. In: CURRENT SCIENCE, 116 (10). pp. 1721-1730.

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CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 116, NO. 10, 25 MAY 2019 .pdf - Published Version

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v116/i10/1721-1730

Abstract

Glaciers in the Satluj river basin are likely to lose 53% and 81% of area by the end of the century, if climate change followed RCP 8.5 scenario of CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-CM3 models respectively. The large variability in area loss can be due to difference in temperature and precipitation projections. Presently, Satluj basin has approximately 2000 glaciers, 1426 sq. km glacier area and 62.3 Gt glacier stored water. The current mean specific mass balance is -0.40 m.w.e. a(-1 )This will change to -0.42 and - 1.1 m.w.e. a(-1) by 2090, if climate data of CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-CM3 are used respectively. We have used an extreme scenario of GFDL-CM3 model to assess the changes in the contribution of glacier melt to the Bhakra reservoir. Mass balance model suggests that glaciers are contributing 2 km(3) a(-1) out of 14 km(3) of water. This will increase to 2.2 km(3) a(-1) by 2050, and then reduce to 1.5 km(3) a(-1) by the end of the century. In addition, loss in glacier area by the end of century, will also increase the vulnerability of mountain communities, suggesting need for better adaptation and water management practices.

Item Type: Journal Article
Additional Information: copyright for this article belongs to Indian Acad Sci
Keywords: Climate change; glacier; glacier melt runoff; Himalaya; mass balance; Satluj basin; water availability
Department/Centre: Division of Mechanical Sciences > Divecha Centre for Climate Change
Division of Mechanical Sciences > Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Depositing User: Id for Latest eprints
Date Deposited: 04 Jun 2020 11:07
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2020 11:07
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/62868

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