Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

Dhanya, CT and Kumar, Nagesh D (2013) Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow. In: Australian Journal of Water Resources, 17 (1).

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Abstract

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system's Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Publication:	Australian Journal of Water Resources
Publisher:	Institution of Engineers, Australia
Additional Information:	Copyright for this article belongs to the Institution of Engineers, Australia
Department/Centre:	Division of Mechanical Sciences > Civil Engineering
Date Deposited:	05 Sep 2013 06:02
Last Modified:	05 Sep 2013 06:02
URI:	http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/47336

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