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TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY

Karak, Bidya Binay and Nandy, Dibyendu (2012) TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY. In: ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS, 761 (1).

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2041-8205/761/1/L13

Abstract

Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus. Yeates et al. have shown that the dynamical memory of the solar dynamo mechanism governs predictability, and this memory is different for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. By utilizing stochastically forced, kinematic dynamo simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux reduces the memory of both advection- and diffusion-dominated solar dynamos to only one cycle; stronger pumping degrades this memory further. Thus, our results reconcile the diverging dynamo-model-based forecasts for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. We conclude that reliable predictions for the maximum of solar activity can be made only at the preceding minimum-allowing about five years of advance planning for space weather. For more accurate predictions, sequential data assimilation would be necessary in forecasting models to account for the Sun's short memory.

Item Type: Journal Article
Additional Information: Copyright for this article belongs to IOP PUBLISHING LTD, ENGLAND
Keywords: magnetic fields;Sun:activity;Sun:dynamo;Sun:interior
Department/Centre: Division of Physical & Mathematical Sciences > Physics
Depositing User: Francis Jayakanth
Date Deposited: 04 Jan 2013 11:55
Last Modified: 04 Jan 2013 11:55
URI: http://eprints.iisc.ac.in/id/eprint/45616

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